China and East Asia

The region is for China to own as a benign hegemon. Two obstacles stand in the way: entrenched American presence, and norms of interstate relations in the region. Hence, Chinese actions are caught between a rock and a hard place. The Chinese are caught in a Chinese finger trap. To sidestep this: China needs to evolve a liberal Confucianism, and to become an American "partner". Second, it needs to gain buy-in from countries in the region. Third, it needs to become the key facilitating node in the service economy in Asia, with its associated economic, socio-cultural, and people-to-people flows. This is not easy.

It's hegemony will not be absolute. This is not how the region works and it knows this.

China must avoid conflict at all costs. This would upend everything it should seek in the region. America's presence in the region would probably scale down over the long term, if its currency loses reserve status. But it's influence will not be critically predicated on American military presence, but on Chinese political, economic, institutional and cultural evolution and it's corresponding soft power in the region. This will legitimate its structural power. In short, Chinese diplomacy is best served by focusing on internal development. That is the only way out of its finger trap.

***

Of course, China would probably find it easier to work within existing systems and institutions, such as international law and UN, while gradually tilting them, alongside other multilateral frameworks, to its interests.