Two World Trends

Two world trends: Convergence and multipolarity

Materialism drives industrialisation, which drives education, which drives value convergence. Every country is now subordinate to the global commons because of this value convergence within their electorates. States which do not follow this necessity eventually become irrelevant to the global order. Trade and Technology-driven power necessitates the primacy of the influence of this developmental dynamic. Convergence also implies that the technological gap between emerging and advanced economies will narrow in the long run.

Multipolarity is driven by the desire of emerging countries to free-ride on the developed countries for global public good provision until the latter can no longer afford them. World leadership will then evolve into multipolarity and regionalism as US cost-benefit calculation tilts in favour of self-interest, and its position subsides, without equivalent replacements. Strategic allocation of resources by the US would matter, but the ability of the polity to do so is in doubt. Perhaps some form of fee for safety and protection will be provided, as the US commercialises it's military advantage to serve as global policeman.